Is China Indeed the Winner of the India-Pakistan War?

Background: The Triggers of War

A four-day military war between longstanding foes India and Pakistan recently ended following a ceasefire. While both countries claimed victory, an unexpected player—China—seems to have emerged as the biggest winner.

The crisis was triggered on 7 May, after India's attacks against what it had called "terrorist infrastructure" inside Pakistan. It came as a reprisal for a brutal militant attack on 22 April in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, that had claimed the lives of 26 people, most of whom were tourists. All but one of them were butchered in front of their kin, and this kindled anger in India. New Delhi blamed Islamabad for supporting the militant groups behind it, something denied by Pakistan.

The Military Exchange: Jets, Missiles, and Drones

Following India's Operation Sindoor, both nations engaged in tit-for-tat military exchanges involving drones, missiles, and fighter jets. India reportedly used French Rafale and Russian-produced fighter jets, while Pakistan rolled out its Chinese co-manufactured J-10 and JF-17 fighter planes.

They both insist that no jets crossed over the border but exchanged fire with each other at a distance using missiles. Pakistan also asserts that it had destroyed at least six Indian aircraft, including the newly purchased Rafale planes. India has neither denied nor accepted the claims.

When asked, Indian Air Force Air Marshal AK Bharti said, "Losses are a part of combat," but declined to comment on individual claims. He confirmed that every Indian pilot returned safely and missions' goals were attained.

India also claimed to have killed at least 100 terrorists, targeting the strongholds of illegal militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, operating from Pakistan.

The Role of Chinese-Made Fighter Jets

Reports suggest Pakistan’s J-10 fighter jets, built with Chinese collaboration, were actively involved. A Reuters report citing American officials indicated Pakistan may have fired air-to-air missiles from J-10s against Indian jets.

This debut in battle is being looked at by some military strategists as a turning point for the military technology of China. Zhou Bo, a retired Chinese colonel, called it a "DeepSeek moment," likening it to how Chinese AI disrupted world tech early this year. Zhou went on to state that the war placed Chinese weapons systems "next to none."

Following the news, Avic Chengdu Aircraft, which produces the J-10, had its shares increase by as much as 40%.

Expert Views: Caution and Analysis

Not all agree with the Chinese jets' dominance. Professor Walter Ladwig of King's College London noted that it is too early to determine whether Chinese jets have flown better than Indian Rafales.

He indicated Indian air operations did not follow the conventional military principle of acquiring air superiority before carrying out ground raids. This suggests India could have specifically sized up the extent of their mission to avoid escalation.

Ladwig also speculated Indian pilots flew missions even when Pakistan's air defense was fully alerted, with limited information given about the overall air campaign.

China's Strategic Gains

While Beijing remained mum on J-10 intelligence success, Chinese social media erupted in raptures of patriotic pride with unconfirmed rumors. Carlotta Rinauvo, a Chinese security researcher, observed that perception outranks proven facts, i.e., according to that yardstick, China is the largest winner.

China is interested in Pakistan on a huge scale, especially with its multi-billion-dollar investment through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative. A strong and stable Pakistan is of strategic concern to China.

Pakistani security analyst Imtiaz Gul opined, "China made a critical difference. India likely underestimated the depth of modern military cooperation between Pakistan and China."

Conclusion: The Real Impact of the Conflict

The brief but intense war has tested not only India and Pakistan, but also China's defense technology in the true test of war. Whether Chinese jets actually bested Indian aircraft is questionable, but geopolitical interests are not.

While China's rising power and strategic partnership with Pakistan persist, the region's military calculus might be shifting in dimensions extending far beyond the war at hand.