Mexico Threatens Full-Fledged Retaliation Against Trump's 25% Tariffs—Countermeasures Underway

Mexico City— In retaliation for the United States slapping a 25% tariff on all its imports, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has ordered retaliatory tariffs with immediate effect, in the latest escalation between the two countries.

Sheinbaum said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter) that Mexico favors diplomacy, but this is the time for countermeasures.

"We seek dialogue, not confrontation. However, we are left with no choice but to defend Mexico's economic interests. I have instructed the Economy Minister to implement our 'Plan B,' which includes a combination of tariff and non-tariff measures," Sheinbaum posted, without specifying which U.S. goods would be targeted.

Mexico Prepares Counter-Tariffs on Key U.S. Imports

Sources close to the process said that Mexico will slap tariffs from 5% to 20% on the following significant U.S. exports:

Pork
Cheese
Fresh produce
Manufactured steel and aluminum

The auto industry should be exempt in this first stage but future measures could be extended.

U.S.-Mexico Trade at Risk Amid Tariff War

The United States is Mexico's largest trade partner, with Mexico surpassing China in 2023 as the top destination for U.S. exports. According to Census Bureau data, U.S. exports to Mexico were valued at over $322 billion last year, while imports from Mexico exceeded $475 billion.

According to experts, the prolonged dispute on tariffs may drastically lower Mexico's GDP. Here is the forecast from Gabriela Siller, an economic analyst at Grupo Financiero BASE:

A 12% drop in Mexican exports
A 4% shrinkage in Mexico's GDP for 2025 in case the tariffs lasted a whole year

Mexico Condemns U.S. Justification for Tariffs

The White House said the tariffs were a response to what it believed was Mexico's failure to step up efforts to halt fentanyl trafficking and illegal migration. But Sheinbaum denied the accusations in no uncertain terms, labeling them as "slander."

She cited the unprecedented crackdown her administration had waged since she assumed office in October, noting:

Seizing 20 million doses of fentanyl
Jailing more than 10,000 people with links to drug cartels

Mexico’s ruling party congressional leader, Ricardo Monreal, described the U.S. measures as one of the most severe attacks on Mexico’s sovereignty in modern history.

What’s Next?

Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard labeled the Trump tariffs a clear violation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and vowed to fight back.

"Plan B is underway, and we will win!" he declared.

Consequently, the tensions are going to rise while global markets and industries reliant on U.S.-Mexico trade will watch this development very closely.