Will Somalia Replace Ethiopia with Egypt in the New AU Peacekeeping Mission?

As the deadline by the UN Security Council nears for authorizing a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia, there is increasing concern about the stability in the future of the Horn of African nation. A proposal by the African Union will be to form an African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia to replace the current African Union Transition Mission in Somalia that will end in December 2024.

Situation Now

On August 12, 2024, the UN Security Council is scheduled to formally decide upon the extension of the ATMIS mission or any other replacement mission. This comes after several months during which al-Shabaab militants launched a spate of deadly attacks, the most recent of which targeted a beach in Mogadishu, killing dozens of people. There are concerns that a hurried and badly planned pullout of peacekeeping forces could give rise to a power vacuum and clear the way for Al-Shabaab to further destabilize the region.

The New Mission: AUSSOM

The new resolution by the African Union provides for ATMIS's handing over of activities to AUSSOM in January 2025. This shall be a new mission of the African Union, armed with a more potent mandate and efforts toward engagement with new challenges including evolving political and security issues in Somalia. Key among those objectives are protection responsibilities, including protection of principal population centers, United Nations facilities, government installations, and assisting in stabilizing the Somali government.

Details of how AUSSOM will operate are now being finalized in a report by the African Union Peace and Security Council that collates past peacekeeping missions, due to be published in September, outlining which AU member states will contribute to the operation. Egypt and Djibouti have already signaled their intention to contribute, with Djibouti offering to send a Formed Police Unit "as soon as possible."

Withdrawal of Ethiopia, Tensions

Ethiopia has always played an important role in the past within peacekeeping missions in Somalia. However, recent tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia make any prospect of Ethiopia's involvement in AUSSOM highly doubtful. Somali National Security Advisor Hussein Sheikh-Ali branded any Ethiopian troops who remain in Somalia beyond December 2024 as "occupiers." This comes as the Somali government claimed to have intercepted weapons sourced from Ethiopia, an accusation it vehemently denies.

The Ethiopian government expressed disappointment in such allegations, citing massive efforts that the country has been putting into Somalia, attempting to ensure its stability. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the allegations were not true because Ethiopia was committed to peace and stability in Somalia.

Strategic Implications

The replacement of ATMIS by AUSSOM marks a critical juncture for Somalia. The development raises fears among analysts on the replacement of Ethiopian troops with others from other member states of the AU where complex dynamics are involved. It was a call by Somalia for a new peacekeeping mission and, at the same time, insisting on withdrawal of Ethiopian forces—the intricate balancing needed to handle both internal and external security concerns.

Conclusion

The world is keenly eyeing the process that Somalia goes through in these troubled waters. In a nutshell, effective coordination of the AU member state's actual implementation of AUSSOM with a clear strategy in place for phased handover of responsibilities from ATMIS will be called for. The coming months will define whether it will be possible for Somalia to achieve a stable and secure environment amidst ongoing threats from extremist groups.