China’s CO₂ Emissions Show Promising Decline Over 18 Months: Turning Point Near?

China, the world’s largest contributor to global carbon emissions, appears to be entering a pivotal era in its transition to a greener future. A new analysis has revealed that the country’s CO₂ emissions have either flattened or declined over the past 18 months — a trend that may signal a crucial peak in its pollution output.

The slowdown marks what climate experts consider a critical milestone for preventing the worst effects of global warming. If sustained, it could help China reach its carbon peaking goal before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.

What’s Behind the Decline?

Several major economic and policy shifts are driving this positive trend, including:

• Massive investment in renewable energy: China leads the world in solar and wind capacity growth.
• Electric vehicle surge: The booming EV market is cutting demand for petrol-powered transportation.
• Industrial efficiency improvements: Heavy sectors like steel and cement are becoming more energy-efficient.
• Economic restructuring: Slowdown in property development is reducing coal and energy consumption.

These changes are gradually reducing China’s dependence on coal — though it still dominates the energy mix.

Challenges That Remain

Despite progress, analysts warn that the path forward is not guaranteed:

• Coal plant construction is still expanding in some regions.
• Economic recovery could once again intensify industrial energy demand.
• Clean energy growth varies widely across provinces.

Experts say China must maintain and accelerate this momentum to avoid emission rebounds.

Why It Matters Globally

China accounts for nearly 30% of global CO₂ emissions. A sustained decline would significantly improve global climate projections and strengthen global efforts toward the Paris Agreement goals.

The country’s leadership in manufacturing green technologies, such as solar panels and batteries, is also helping other nations transition more affordably.

Are We Witnessing a Turning Point?

Analysts are cautiously optimistic. With major renewable energy expansions underway, the coming years may confirm whether the current trend marks the true peak of China’s emissions.

For now, after 18 months of stable or declining carbon output, one message is clear: China is finally bending its emissions curve in the right direction.