Polish President Warns of Cross-Border Crime Surge After Ukraine War Ends

Andrzej Duda Urges Strong Security Measures to Prevent Organized Crime Spillover

Polish President Andrzej Duda warned that the end of Russia's invasion of Ukraine may lead to a spike in international organized crime that could spill over into Poland, Western Europe, and the United States.

In an interview recently, Duda expressed that Ukraine would need extraordinary security assistance to not have crime spill over its borders. He likened the situation to Russia in the 1990s, when returning former Soviet troops from Afghanistan contributed to a significant rise in gang violence and criminality.

Security Concerns After the War

Duda noted that losses from a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia had already been many times higher compared to the war in Afghanistan, and that can provoke lawlessness because thousands of Ukrainian soldiers will return home with mental disorders, including post-traumatic syndrome.

"Imagine when there are going to be thousands of war veterans who come back to their destroyed house, ruined factory, and no job. The danger of escalation in crime is actual," he said.

He, however, emphasized the immediate need for economic recovery programs and law enforcement support in post-war Ukraine.

NATO and Western Troop Deployment

Whereas Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been calling for a 200,000-strong Western troop deployment after a ceasefire to deter further Russian aggression, Duda has expressed skepticism about sending Polish troops to Ukraine.

Poland has been one of Ukraine's most stalwart allies, offering military aid and logistical support throughout the conflict. But Duda also echoed concerns voiced by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about the direct deployment of forces to enforce a peace deal.
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"Poland will continue helping Ukraine, but we are also highly exposed to potential Russian attacks," Duda said.

Poland's Role in Post-War Negotiations

With former US President Donald Trump promising, in the meantime, to terminate the war in several months upon reelection without further detailing a concrete plan, Duda suggested including Poland in whatever peace negotiations that are held internationally.

"Given Russia's imperial ambitions, Polish and Ukrainian interests are highly compatible," he declared. 

Grinding Tensions between Poland and Ukraine

Despite Poland’s strong backing of Ukraine, historical tensions between the two nations persist. Disputes over World War II-era atrocities and exhumations of Polish victims have strained relations, especially with elections approaching in Poland.

A tentative agreement on these issues was reached in late 2024, but they remain a sensitive topic in Polish domestic politics.

Conclusion

With the war in Ukraine at what could be a turning point, security concerns are still the first order of things for Poland and its Western allies. Without strong post-war stabilization efforts, the region could face a new wave of organized crime and instability.

Poland is expected to continue to support Ukraine, but remains cagey about direct military involvement in enforcing any future peace agreement.

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