Delhi Election Results 2024: BJP Forges Ahead on Muslim Dominated Seats – Check Latest Updates and Trends

Finally, the waiting is over – the results are out as counting begins in earnest. Early trends, according to the Election Commission of India, have shown complete reversals and unexpected gains of fortunes for Bharatiya Janata Party constituencies considered its strongholds - Aam Admi Party.

BJP Off to a Flier in Early Trends

9:45 AM: BJP has surged ahead with a surprise lead in several crucial constituencies, including those dominated by Muslims. It is leading in Okhla and Mustafabad-both considered strongholds of AAP. If this trend holds, that would imply a major political realignment in Delhi.

Surprising Trend in Muslim-Majority Constituencies

The Muslim-dominated constituencies have been a tight fiefdom of AAP for the last ten years. This election cycle, however, seems to be an unexpected twist.

In Okhla, BJP candidate Manish Chaudhary is leading with 14,830 votes, beating two-time AAP MLA Amanatullah Khan. This is considered a significant lead as Okhla has traditionally been viewed as a hub of AAP support. If the BJP wins here, it will mark a historic turn of voter preference.

Similarly, in the Mustafabad constituency, BJP's Mohan Singh Bisht is leading against AAP's Adil Ahmad Khan. The 2020 riots in Northeast Delhi had a deep impact on the sentiments at Mustafabad, and analysts see voting there as reflecting the deeper tides of communal and political movements.

Exit Polls Present Conflicting Predictions

Different exit polls had presented a mixed picture regarding the outcome of the Delhi election results. If some surveys indicated a comfortable victory for the BJP, suggesting that it might win anything between 51 to 60 seats in the 70-member Delhi Assembly, others continued to project a strong show by AAP that would allow the party to retain its stranglehold over Delhi politics.

The Congress party, which has been struggling for over a decade to regain political relevance in Delhi, was not expected to win big by anyone. Yet, political analysts say last-minute swings in votes could still impact the final outcome.

AAP's Political Stronghold Faces a Challenge

For the last ten years, the AAP has been the only big presence in Delhi politics. From sweeping 67 out of 70 seats in 2015 to another tsunami victory in 2020, getting 62 seats from an equal number of contested wards, such a governance model-which hinged on free electricity, the revamping of public education, and structural reforms in health-has been duly recognized among party supporters.

But if the BJP maintains the momentum, it might just dent AAP's hegemony in the capital. A defeat would weaken not only AAP's citadel in Delhi but also the national stature of its Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal. On the other hand, if the party manages to return to power, Kejriwal will emerge far stronger as a leader and might try his hand at expanding his influence beyond Delhi ahead of the 2024 General Elections.

What a BJP Victory Means for Delhi

A victory in Delhi will mark the return of the BJP to power in the capital after nearly three decades. The last time BJP ruled Delhi was in 1998. Since then, the party has suffered a string of defeats in state elections though it has always fared well in municipal elections and at the national level.

A BJP win in Delhi would thus be a severe electoral setback for AAP, snapping the string of successive victories it enjoyed, and reshape alignments in the state. It would also be a reinforcement of its appeal in urban centers and contribute to the momentum in its national election campaign.

Congress Continues to Struggle for Relevance

From being a strong force in Delhi under Sheila Dikshit, Congress has been witnessing an electoral decline since 2013. In the elections of 2015 and 2020, the Congress party failed to clinch even one seat. Though the party had tried to wage a political battle this time too, early trends do not suggest a comeback to the party.

If Congress remains sidelined in this election as well, it will further diminish the party’s role in Delhi’s politics. The party’s performance in the capital is crucial as it prepares for the upcoming national elections, and a continued downward trajectory could weaken its chances of recovery at the national level.

Voter Turnout and Key Demographics

High voter turnout in the Delhi Assembly elections this year was an important contributor to the election outcome. According to the Election Commission, the overall voter turnout is about 62%, lower than in the 2020 elections. As several political analysts note, such trends may also have been aided by voter fatigue, combined with a shift in voting patterns from their respective communities.

In a constituency with a predominantly high Muslim electorate, the voting percentage was the same or only marginally improved, indicating that beyond conventional party allegiance, governance, security, and economic development issues could have weighed in voter decisions.

Final Results Expected by Evening

As the vote counting commenced, political parties exuded confidence in the outcome. The Election Commission said the final results would be announced by 6 PM. The final tally will seal the fate on whether the BJP can pull off a historic victory, AAP can retain its political supremacy, or Congress can spring a surprise against all odds.

Reasons That May Impact the Outcome

Several factors might have influenced the outcome of this election:

1. Demographics and Voter Turnout

While AAP has traditionally depended on middle and lower-class votes, inroads by BJP among minority-dominated areas indicate that economic issues and governance might have been a pertinent factor.

2. Impact of National Politics

The BJP's campaign focused on national security, law and order, and infrastructure development-issues aligned with its bigger narrative across India. If these issues clicked with the voters, that could be one explanation for the improved performance of the party in certain constituencies.

3. AAP's Governance Model

The governance model of AAP, based on free public services like electricity, water, and education, has been a major vote-winner in the past. Whether this model continues to hold voter appeal or faces diminishing returns will be evident in the final results.

4. The Role of Congress as a Spoiler

Though Congress has not been a decisive factor in the recent Delhi elections, whatever little it takes away from AAP will help the BJP. In this election, the split of votes in closely contested wards can prove to be the differentiator in the result.

What's Next for Delhi?

The final election results will shape the political landscape of Delhi for the next five years. If AAP is able to win, it will continue its governance agenda and will probably look for further influence in other states. If BJP is able to emerge victorious, then it will open a new chapter in Delhi politics, bringing the party back into the forefront of the capital's administration. For Congress, there is the task of redefining its role and rebuilding the lost voter base.

Stay tuned for the latest updates as vote counting continues and final results are declared. For more in-depth election analysis and live updates, visit The Economic Times.