Finland Investigates Latest
The Baltic Sea's tranquil waters have just become a hotbed of mystery and intrigue as Finland opens an investigation into the suspected Christmas Day sabotage of an undersea power cable linking it with Estonia. The affected cable is part of the Estlink 2 connection and suddenly lost electricity transmission at 12:26 pm local time on Wednesday, according to Finnish grid operator Fingrid.
A Shadow of Suspicion In incidents like these, the suspicion generally falls on some kind of technical malfunction, though Fingrid does not deny the possibility of sabotage. "The possibility of sabotage cannot be ruled out," said Arto Pahkin, operations manager for Fingrid, according to public broadcaster Yle. He further added that authorities were carefully studying the incident and that further updates would come when the cause of the damage is clear.
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo also spoke on the incident, reassuring people that authorities were on high alert during the holiday season. Writing on X, a social media platform, Orpo confirmed that investigations are very well underway.
Suspicious Vessels in the Spotlight
Two foreign vessels have emerged as possible links to the damage. Finnish police investigate a Hong Kong-flagged cargo ship, the Xin Xin Tian 2, that allegedly was near the cable when it was damaged. Other suspects include the Eagle S, a crude oil tanker sailing under the flag of the Cook Islands. The vessel has previously been linked to what has been dubbed the "dark fleet," a collection of ships reportedly involved in the transport of Russian oil to skirt international sanctions. The Eagle S was said to have left the Russian port of Ust-Luga on Christmas Eve, raising further suspicions about its actions in the Baltic Sea.
A Disturbing Pattern of Incidents
The latest incident forms part of a concerning pattern of damage to infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, which has been hotly disputed since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In October 2023, a Hong Kong-registered cargo ship was implicated in damaging the Balticconnector gas pipeline. Similarly, two subsea data cables-one connecting Finland and Germany, the other linking Lithuania and Sweden-were cut in November.
In these past incidents, Chinese cargo vessels were suspected, with one vessel, Yi Peng 3, suspected of dropping anchor on sensitive infrastructure. However, China refused to agree to probes and countered that the vessel had to leave due to crew safety.
Regional and Global Implications
The Baltic Sea is not only essential for energy transmission but also vital in terms of data transmission. While several incidents are already under investigation, some regional leaders urge the need for more far-reaching measures. According to an Estonian foreign affairs official, "closing the Baltic Sea to vessels flying certain flags should not be ruled out" in case sabotage is confirmed.
Incidents such as these point out the very sensitive spots in infrastructure that face geopolitically sensitive areas. They highlight the interaction between state and non-state actors that, in many ways, is increasingly becoming a shadow war on the borders of Europe.
What Lies Ahead?
With investigations still ongoing in Finland and Estonia, the need for robust regional cooperation and international transparency is more urgent than ever. The involvement of sanctioned fleets, foreign vessels, and possible geopolitical motives will probably be the dominating questions in the weeks to come.
For now, the Baltic Sea remains a microcosm of broader global tensions, with each incident adding another layer to an already fraught regional security landscape.